Demand Forecasting requirements differ depending on your customer segments and business drivers. For new entrants a simple approach may be appropriate, however suppliers with larger complex customer portfolios will need different forecasting tools to achieve higher levels of accuracy. Increasing wholesale price volatility also further amplifies the impact of forecasting errors.
We work with specialist vendors to give you the capabilities you need to:
- Forecast across different times (intra-day to long term)
- Factor in current and anticipated customer volumes, including growth and churn
- Select appropriate forecasting methodologies for different settlement types (daily metered, non-daily metered, half hourly and non-half hourly)
- Cater for different techniques - from simple roll-forward to complex mathematical algorithms such as neural networks
- Easily accommodate inputs from other sources (e.g. consumption, settlements, weather and events)
- Understand your forecast performance and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE)
Forecasting correctly is not a trivial matter. We have implemented forecasting solutions for a number of UK suppliers and have first-hand experience in overcoming the challenges in developing solutions that are fit for different business needs and are capable of operating in a production environment.
We understand the difficulty in forecasting more complicated portfolios, including B2B and generation, and recognise that this will become more complex as demand-side flexibility becomes a reality in the UK market. The advent of elective and mandatory half-hourly electricity settlement will have a significant impact on demand forecasting and using our smart metering expertise we can help you to realise the benefits of this major industry change.
Data quality and the ability to ensure your forecasting solution works seamlessly with your IT landscape is vital. So, we draw on our data quality and governance teams to deliver forecasting solutions which give you the best possible outcome.
Get in touch now to find out more about how CGI can help you and your organisation.